NOAA predicting a near-normal hurricane season

ONE WEEK! Until we officially enter hurricane season.

This isn't exactly something to get too excited about, as any landfalling hurricane can cause catastrophic damage.

We've seen the damage that storms can do already, with Super Typhoon Mawar.

Typhoons and hurricanes are the same phenomenon being that they are all a type of tropical cyclone. However, they occur in different locations. Hurricane is used for tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic, North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. Tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific are called Typhoons. Lastly, the generic term typical cyclone is used for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.

The tropics are already seeing activity, with Super Typhoon Mawar hitting Guam and bringing Cat. 4 force winds (over 140mph). This was the strongest storm to hit a U.S. Pacific territory in decades. Tens of thousands were without power in Guam as the typhoon brushed the northern tip.

Back to the Atlantic, things have remained quiet thus far. However, that can change on a dime if winds over the Atlantic weaken, and as the ocean temperatures rise.

With a week until the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in coordination with the Climate Prediction Center, released its 2023 hurricane season outlook.

The relatively good news is that they are predicting a near-normal hurricane season.

The 2023 season forecast

The outlook gives a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season, and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.

The outlook forecasts between 12 and 17 named storms. Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes with wind speeds of 74mph or higher. Additionally, this includes 1 to 4 major hurricanes. A cyclone is a major hurricane when it reaches Cat. 3, 4, or 5 strength, with wind speeds over 111mph.

NOAA gives this outlook a high confidence level of 70%.

What's behind the outlook

The big driver for the near-normal hurricane season is the change from La Nina to El Nino in the next few months. You can read about La Nina or El Nino from a previous blog post.

We've had La Nina conditions these last few seasons, which can enhance hurricane activity. This year, scientists are predicting El Nino, which suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity. However, warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and disturbances coming off West Africa's coast could help offset El Nino impacts. Some of the strongest storms form off the coast of Africa. In summary, don't become complacent because we are in an El Nino year. It just takes one storm to cause devasting and life-changing damage.

Hurricane Season Upgrades

Some changes are coming this year which will help communities prepare for storms. NOAA will extend their tropical cyclone outlooks from 5 to 7 days, giving enhanced warning time to emergency managers. Upgrades are also coming to the NOAA storm surge model and their forecasting model systems.

Rainfall outlooks are getting an upgrade. Flooding is the deadliest hazard with hurricanes. To help communities prepare, the Weather Prediction Center is extending the Excessive Rainfall outlook to five days, which allows for an additional two-day lead time.

Enhanced data collection from drones, underwater instruments, weather balloons, and buoys will also boost the prediction and tracking of storms.

What's in the name

Tropical cyclone names are recycled every six years, which means many of the names on this list for 2023 are the same as in 2017. However, you'll notice a few new ones because some were retired after the 2017 season.

For example, the name Harvey was retired after the storm caused the devastating flooding in Houston in 2017, and instead was replaced by the name Harold. Additionally, Idalia, Margot, and Nigel are all new, replacing Irma, Maria, and Nate. 

What should you do

Unless you're planning on vacationing on a beach, you don't need to worry about the hurricane season too much. Keep up with the forecasts if you have a vacation planned. Otherwise, Heaven forbid, if there is a landfalling hurricane, do your part to help communities recover by donating funds to relief projects.